Future Shock

A 'GREAT", READ.. LOVE THIS BOOK!!!!

Hard to believe this was written 45 years ago. It was phenomenally prescient, and it still feels representative of the modern era and well-positioned to predict the future. Toffler's premise that the accelerating rate of social change (including ever-greater transcience, novelty, and diversity) is outpacing man's ability to cope comes with a dour imperative: adapt or die. We, as individuals and as a civilization, need to understand "the accelerative thrust triggered by man has become the key to the entire evolutionary process on the planet," and Toffler suggests we need to seize control over the rapid waves of change headed our way before they overtake us. Sadly, society does not yet seem to have heeded Toffler's calls to action, and much of our lives are filled with idle, ephemeral distraction while the ground shifts beneath our feet. Climate change science was not as abundant or conclusive in the early 1970s as it is today, so while they're no mention of it in the book (it's also a natural phenomenon, while Toffler focuses on the accelerative thrust of tech), it is a perfect example of how humans need to be more future-oriented and prepared for massive change. Toffler's writing is well-researched and fast-paced. It reads almost like an action thriller. His descriptions of the accelerative wave of change sweeping through society actually made me anxious as I read--today the force of change is almost tangible; you can feel its pressure everywhere you turn, with all of the complex decisions we're faced with and the new information we're required to process on a daily basis. I'm sure Toffler would find it ironic that I was speed-reading his book--with so much to keep up with, I feel there's no time to read at a leisurely pace anymore. I appreciated Toffler's self-criticism throughout. He acknowledges that no single idea is "omni-insightful" and that, while some of his suggestions for solutions may appear naive, such as transforming our economy to pay more attention to social and environmental welfare, they are also critical to the survival of the human race. Do not underestimate Future Shock. Its message is clearly a driving force behind Ray Kurzweil's "The Singularity Is Near"; billionaire Carlos Slim identified it as a key resource that helped him anticipate the future. If you're fascinated by culture and want to understand the strange, fast-paced compression of modern life, this book is essential.

It is a pleasant surprise to see that this book has been reissued as a hardcover. In the thrity years since its original publication, the basic truths and awesome prognositications have largely come to pass. Of course, in the process Mr. Toffler has become something of a cottage industry himself, since publishing several sequels (The Third Wave, Power Shift, etc.). Yet nothing surpasses the sheer magnitude of the argument forwarded here. Toffler marshalls a virtual mountain of evidence illustrating his claim of a rising flood of techniological, social, and economic change, largely emanating from the increasing influence of science and technology into every area of contemporary life. Toffler's main concern is with the recognition that while a human being's capacity to adjust physically, psychologically, and socially to this torrent of change is finite and quite limited, the pace of change is increasing and expanding into more and more areas of individuals' lives. Moreover, no one is asking for these profound and endless changes; they stem more from the economic impulses of the marketplace than from any kind of consumer demand, and perhaps we should be asking to what extent this flood of innovations actually enhances our lives, and personal convenience associated with all these innovations and technological improvements are worth the social, economic, and political change that follows in its wake. The term "future shock" refers to what happens when people are no longer able to cope with the pace of change. All sorts of symptoms and maladies results, ranging from depression to bizarre behavior to increases in susceptability to disease to absolute emotional breakdown. Thus, Toffler accurately anticipated many of the sorts of psychological, social, and economic maldies and turbulence of the last thirty years. Yet, to date literally no one seems to pay much heed to his thesis, or to ask what it means for the quality of life in our own futures. This is an important book raising critical and fundamental questions about the social, economic, and political impacts of technologically-induced innovations within contemporary society and the way they are flooding uncontested and unhampered into our social environment. This is a must-read for any serious student of social science.

Interesting book. I remember my dad reading this book when I was little. I bought it at the recommendation of a colleague. There are some interesting theories in the book, especially looking back to see how some of them played out. I am not sure that the "shock, distress, and overload" that Toffler predicted has come about. His theory that there will be immense changes based on technological and other advancements was not a far reach. However, his prediction that society will ultimately not be able to adapt to, process, or manage al the new capabilities and the changes that they bring may not be wholly accurate. The shock seems to be more on the older generation (for example, not understanding how the younger generation will communicate by text rather than spoke word, even within direct proximity to each other) and the overload also seems to be on the older generation (watching some seniors try to program a GPS can be interesting), but the younger generation seems to be processing and adopting very well. In my generation, one was hard pressed to get to typing 60 words per minute in a typing class, focusing on one paragraph within one single subject - yet the technology of today has taught small children to type just as quickly while managing multiple conversations at one time. There are some good lessons to consider in this book, so it's not a waste of time to read.

Future Shock foi escrito em 1970 com um ambicioso objetivo de tentar projetar as tendências que se consolidariam ao longo do tempo. Ao ler o livro em 2022, é possível constatar o quão assustadoramente acuradas foram suas previsões (por exemplo, o modus operandi de aulas online). Lógico, nem todas as previsões se realizaram, mas a taxa de acerto é alta. O grande mérito do autor foi captar a mudanças em curso ao longo da década de 1960 e verificar quais se firmariam, substituindo padrões anteriores, e as implicações de padrões tecnológicos sobre as relações humanas. Uma leitura necessária para economistas (mudanças nas relações econômicas), sociólogos (impactos sobre a sociedade) e psicólogos (impactos sobre a psiquê humana)

When I first read this book in 1971 it change my life, setting me on a career in IT that has now lasted over 40 years. I read it again recently and was both surprised and please to note how many of Professor Toffler's predictions about the following decades have proven correct and are still relevant today. A classic for all those interested not only in where we have been but also where we are going. After becoming depressed reading Sapiens this insightful and positive publication was a delight.

Brilliant

Le travail du futurologue est toujours risqué. La confrontation entre le futur prédit et le présent accompli peut être dévastatrice. Pour autant, cet ouvrage d’Alvin Toffler demeure encore lisible 50 ans après sa publication. L’auteur le rédige à l’apogée de la civilisation américaine. Le rêve américain brille alors comme un soleil. La saga lunaire a fait oublier les horreurs du Vietnam, le dollar est encore accroché à l’or et les trente glorieuses en ont pour trois ans à vivre. La Chine est un grand pays sous-développé ravagé par la révolution culturelle, l’URSS est rongée par le cancer bureaucratique. Toffler caractérise la société d’alors par trois facteurs : précarité (non pérennité), nouveauté, diversité. Les premiers chapitres du livre (3/5) dépeignent le rôle de ces facteurs dans tous les domaines : la famille, le milieu professionnel, la mobilité géographique, la production de biens consommables, l’éducation, les relations humaines, les structures, les modes de vie, la guerre, etc. Même les religions sont bousculées. Rien n’échappe à ce mouvement turbulent. Pour l’auteur, c’est signe d’une société libre et évoluée qui s’oppose à la société archaïque paternaliste cyclique et rigide. C’est un bien absolu. Toffler est cependant lucide qu’une mutation générant un volume important de stimuli chez les individus peut être pathogène. Jugements et décisions ne doivent subir aucun délais. Les problèmes environnementaux sont effleurés pour être oubliés. C’est ce qu’il appelle le choc du futur. Cette partie de l’ouvrage n’est pas particulièrement futuriste : l’auteur anticipe simplement que les choses vont continuer ainsi en s’accélérant. Il préconise ou prévoit que pour se maintenir, la société devra mettre en place d’une part des lieux protégés de ce changement (comme le territoire des Amish), sortes de chambres de décompression, et d’autre part des structures éducatives préparant intensément la population à un futur qui devra être systématiquement magnifié par rapport au passé. Trente ans plus tard Internet ne bousculera pas trop ce schéma. On atteint ici les limites de la perspicacité et de la lucidité de l’auteur. Il ne nous a pas expliqué d’où venait le caractère précaire, novateur et diversifié de la société américaine, le mot ‘capitalisme’ est d’ailleurs presque absent dans son vocabulaire. Ses préconisations permettant d’adoucir le choc de ce futur n’ont jamais été mises en place. Le système évolue par sa dynamique propre quoi qu'on fasse : seule une catastrophe pourra l'arrêter. Depuis 1973, la dette -privée et publique- gonfle partout comme un cancer, les inégalités croissantes paupérisent une partie des classes moyennes alors que la Chine fait sortir des centaines de millions de gens de la pauvreté selon un schéma différent, enfin et surtout, à moyen terme, les enjeux climatiques laissent prévoir un arrêt définitif à tout développement exponentiel de la production de biens matériels. La croissance mondiale réelle ralentit de façon drastique. Le système bancaire est sous perfusion. ‘Game Over’ ! Toffler qui n’a pas anticipé cette inflexion bien marquée a péché par un excès d’optimisme exprimé dans une époque optimiste. En outre, sa vision du temps est incomplète : ainsi, par exemple, la lecture de son livre demandera toujours entre 14 et 18 heures (1,5 à 2 min par page). La pertinence de son modèle touche à sa fin sans qu’on voit encore ce qui pourra le remplacer.

Great book, insightful into our future and our commitment to it.