Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update

I think this book very clearly and understandably describes the bigger problems humanity is facing. I think it is honestly the best book I have read related to Sustainable Development. It is able to cut through the noice around all the discussions of climate change, no climate change, peak oil or no peak oil, overpopulation e.t.c. The book gives a model and a deeper understanding on how every thing is linked together, and a clear picture of how when one variable of the system changes, it will effect all the other variables. I truly cherish this introduction to system dynamics as well. The authors do not claim to have have all the answers, or the perfect model of the world, but he book stills gives a very good picture of linkage, cause and effect in a complex system. Nothing can be said with certainty about future developments, it all rests on the choices we make. This is true for each individual, but also true for the choices we collectively make as a society. What is also true is that whatever we choose, it we will have an effect, and outcome, and we all make these decisions within a systems with certain rules, equations and feedback loops. The rules, equations and feedback-loops for how we operate as a society can be changed by choice, but the responses of the natural world, for what we depend for all we have, can not so easily be changed. I hope to see this book as obligatory reading for any higher education or management training in the future; it really would help the public discourse stay on topic of the really critically discussions, and not so easily get sidetracked and polarized by claims from different special interest groups within the realm of Sustainable Development.

The LTG 30-year update is a more rigorous analysis of all the variables affecting the global ecosystem than the original 1972 study. A principal difference, of course, is that advances in computing power have far exceeded probably even the most optimistic expectations in the 1970s, and we can see with greater precision exactly that the effects of our activities are on our tiny planet. Another difference is that many of the trends studied in the initial work can now be confirmed 30 years later. The authors' conclusion is that we have not done much to ameliorate the damage we are doing to Earth, and implicitly to ourselves, by what we have done in the intervening 30 years. We still produce too many offspring, consume too many finite resources, despoil to much of nature's waste-absorbing capacity, and seem to be stuck in a system that inexorably demands still more of the same. But all is not lost. Read this in conjunction with Jordan Randers follow-on study entitled "2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years". He uses the same "systems approach" used in this 30-year update. There are solutions, but they will require an informed body politic, thoughtful leadership, and an honest assessment of public policy from all of us.

It makes so much sense---we are in overshoot on our way to collapse. In such simple and convincing ways, these process engineers lay it out with their updated model and give you a semi-academic vocabulary and analysis that provides a strong critique versus stupid unplanned growth ecomonics. And they show how making substantial yet not impossible changes could change the fortunes and bring us back to a sustainable balance. Do they overly-discount the potential benefits of new technology yet to be discovered to prevent collapse? I hope to hell they do because if there is anything that is clear, it is that human nature has 1) blind faith in new technology to save us (e.g. how else could nuclear power/waste be justified?) and 2) there is no way that humans will make substantial changes prior to collapse--balance will only be achieved afterwards and of course that means it will be less-rational, more-drastic, less-controllable, more-expensive, more-devastating, etc.

The 30-year update to "Limits to Growth" is possibly the most thought-provoking environmental book I've ever read. I had not read the original, but knew it was heavily criticized as "hysterical" by free-market enthusiasts, especially economist Julian Simon. So, I wasn't expecting the thoughtful, cautious, and considered analysis of the likely scenarios of an ever-expanding human population facing finite resources. The authors make an excellent point that infinite growth (people, food, water, economy, etc.) is simply not possible. Yet, every politician in the world advocates a policy of never-ending growth. The point of the book is not that we will all die from starvation. The point of the book is that if we do not want to run out of resources and live a miserable existence, we have to start planning now. Excellent book to read for your own education, and in some ways, it serves as an antidote to the popular culture's love affair with growth and consumption at any cost.

Main points are these: - People normally use only cause-effect associations (input - output models). - They need to understand that the effect can "send a message" to the input, and this can only be viewed using dynamic models. - They do not think that all exponential process are terminated by the activation of strong negative limiting feedback forces. - The first edition was wrong and this edition will be wrong concerning the timing of the events because: 1) no one knows who will play the game (China phenomenon for example would be thought as an "impossible" event viewed from 1972 perspective) Notice however that venerated Yellow River has received a very large pollution charge in these "growth" years. 2) It is very difficult (impossible) to set accurate parameters for the model. But the MAIN point is: The conclusions (although the timing is not precise) are true, or have a high probability of occur, so that, as the credit growth busted, the pollution growth and the end of natural resources can spoil the world. In this case, we will not be able to borrow pure water, pure air, and food etc... from GOD or from a Natural Resources Central Bank. ------------------------------------------ PS: So that the only way to not spoil the world is to control several key parameters (population growth, natural resources usage, pollution etc...) and some are interdependent.

In the early seventies The Limits to Growth was published, arising strong controversy. A 20-year update was released (Beyond the Limits) and now this third book on the series. In perspective, the Limits to Growth was quite accurate; the computer models used at that time were state-of-the-art. But it is not the models but the concepts beyond them that make the series interesting. In this 30-year update authors make a good discussion of the consequences of exceeding Earth's biocapacity (which has happened already). Our planet is sustainable only because some countries thrive at the expense of others - many authors agree on that. It is not the end of the world, though, but I hope the end of an era of selfishness. This book points that out quite well. It deserves a careful reading.

The book looks back at the conclusions in the book The Limits To Growth and assesses them based on recent data on energy, resources, the environment, etc. The original "Limits" book warned that continuing growth on the pattern of the past would lead to an "overshoot" and collapse of industrial civilization within a century. This book demonstrates conclusively that the world is now in "overshoot," using resources and producing wastes and environmental impacts in a way that won't be sustainable over the generations just ahead. The analysis is sobering, but it never gives way to gloom and doom. The best parts of the book are its clear, thoughtful recommendations on how to back down our impacts and avoid a collapse.

The description says this was updated and published in 2012. The Kindle version I got says it was published in 2004. I'm thinking the Kindle version is not the latest updated version, which is a disappointment. The authors wrote that they planned to revisit it in 2012, but nothing in the Kindle version hints at that. Maybe best to stick with the printed edition.

Amazing book. It arrived on time.

ローマン会議以来の新しいもの。基本路線はあまり変わりませんが、成長に限界がある事実は学問的にも、現実的にも重大で、地球上の生命に課せられた大きな課題なのです。

Eye-opening report, conclusion supported by consistent data and a linear flow of thought, at a divulgative level. I believe this is a must read, given our current situation.

Excellent book. Must read for all. Look out for academic papers to follow up

This is the type of book I wish I had heard of 15 years ago. If you are vaguely interested in planet Earth and the survival of our species in a world of limited resources, do not hesitate... buy the book. It will not cover absolutely everything you need to know, but it is a great start to understand systems science and its applications. I think it will inspire you. And it's an easy read too!